What a half-year for memory. The theme of this group writes itself: nine of the ten are semis/hardware, and the leaders are a memory-and-storage cohort. SanDisk, Micron, Western Digital and Seagate are all riding the NAND/HBM/DRAM shortage colliding with AI data-center demand — SanDisk had already nearly +570% in 2025 as a pure-play flash name leveraged to a global NAND shortage, and the move has only extended. Dell is the AI-server proxy in the group; Corning is the optical/glass infrastructure play. AMD and Applied Materials round it out as the GPU and wafer-fab-equipment exposure. What's equally remarkable is that this isn't about broader chip names. ; NVDA is only +6.28% and AVGO +8.32% YTD, a reminder that index-level leadership and best-stock leadership are very different things this year. If we extend the list to the top-25, it looks like this. The 11–25 band actually broadens the thesis past pure memory into the full AI-infrastructure stack: wafer-fab equipment (LRCX, KLAC, TER), optical/networking (LITE, COHR, CIEN — the transceiver and laser names), and the data-center power-and-cooling trade (VRT, GNRC, FIX, the last being an HVAC/mechanical contractor riding data-center construction). Qnity is the post-spin DuPont electronics-materials business. It's a truly one-theme market when you scale out though. If you had big bets on AI this year, you made incredible gains. If not, it was almost impossible to outperform. The two non-AI standouts are vaccine-maker Moderna at #15 — pipeline/data-driven, a different catalyst entirely — and DaVita at #23, which is dialysis and pure idiosyncratic story. Everything else in the top 25 is some flavor of the same secular bet. Moderna is a platform re-rating away from "COVID one-trick" toward diversified mRNA, which is still a fascinating technology despite the propaganda. The catalysts for the gain was an FDA advisory panel voted 9-0 for its flu vaccine mRNA-1010 in adults 50+, with a final FDA decision due August 5, 2026. Fundamentals are turning too — Q1 2026 revenue was $389M, up 264% YoY and well above consensus. But be careful: the stock trades at ~23x forward earnings on still-uncertain forward numbers. A warning is that insiders have been net sellers, and the sell-side hasn't signed off — the analyst rating skews to Hold/Reduce with price targets implying material downside. The real binary is the Phase 3 melanoma readout later in 2026.
更新于 07-01 04:30 北京时间